A new study led by Duke Health found that tiny RNA molecules in the blood may help predict short-term survival in older adults.
The research, conducted in collaboration with the University of Minnesota and published in Aging Cell, focused on small RNA molecules known as piRNAs.
A group of six piRNAs alone can predict two-year survival with accuracy as high as 86%.
Researchers said the findings suggest a simple blood test could eventually help identify short-term survival risks and support efforts aimed at healthier aging.
How the Study was Done
The study examined blood samples from adults aged 71 and older. Researchers found that lower levels of certain piRNAs were strongly associated with longer survival.
The team used causal artificial intelligence and machine learning to analyze 187 clinical factors and 828 small RNAs across more than 1,200 blood samples collected from a North Carolina-based cohort created in an earlier Duke-led study.
Survival outcomes were measured by linking participants to national mortality records. The findings were later validated in a separate group of older adults.
piRNAs Outperform Other Indicators
Professor Virginia Byers Kraus said the combination of piRNAs performed better than age, cholesterol, physical activity, lifestyle habits, and more than 180 other clinical indicators when predicting short-term survival.
Kraus said previous research had already linked piRNAs to development, regeneration, and immune activity, but little is currently known about their role in blood.
The study also found that lower levels of specific piRNAs matched patterns previously observed in simple organisms, where reduced levels of these molecules were associated with longer lifespan.
More Research Planned
The researchers said future studies will examine whether treatments, medications, or lifestyle changes can alter piRNA levels.
The team also plans to compare piRNA levels in blood with those inside tissues to better understand their biological role.
Kraus said the findings suggest it may eventually become possible to identify short-term survival risk through a minimally invasive blood test designed to support healthier aging.
