Dr. Ramzy Baroud
For those unfamiliar with the intricate machinery of Israeli politics, last week’s unanimous 110-0 vote to dissolve the Knesset appears to be an earth-shattering event. On the surface, it looks as if the days of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition of far-right extremists are numbered. The reality, however, is far more complex.
Israel’s current political implosion is fundamentally tied to its failure to escape the ghosts of Oct. 7. When the country’s military defenses collapsed on that day, Israel was transformed from a state with a formidable reputation as an invincible regional superpower into one trapped with a struggling army that is structurally incapable of decisively winning a single war.
Since the launch of the devastating genocide in Gaza, neither the Israeli government nor the military establishment has been able to answer two fundamental questions.
One, how did the world’s self-proclaimed “invincible army” collapse in a matter of hours, leaving the entire Southern Command — whose sole job was to keep Gazans besieged — in total shambles?
Two, why has that same heavily funded military machine failed to achieve a decisive victory despite the near-total destruction of the Strip and the unprecedented slaughter and wounding of much of its population?
Complicating the matter is Netanyahu’s pathological refusal to honestly investigate either the Oct. 7 intelligence failure or the subsequent conduct of the Gaza war. Instead, he has focused entirely on domestic damage control and image management, aggressively marginalizing or firing intelligence officials or high-ranking bureaucrats who challenge his narrative. Rather than pursuing a viable exit strategy, Netanyahu treated the defense apparatus as a public relations shield.
Consequently, opposition voices — initially led by Yair Lapid and his Yesh Atid party — began demanding Netanyahu’s resignation and snap elections. What began as predictable political fallout quickly evolved into a sweeping popular movement.
Public confidence in the government continues to plummet. Recent opinion polls consistently show that a vast majority of Israelis believe Netanyahu acts out of personal political survival rather than national interest. Data suggests that if elections were held today, his right-wing bloc could suffer a catastrophic defeat at the hands of a newly consolidated opposition coalition known as “Together,” established by Naftali Bennett and Lapid.
Netanyahu, whose legacy as Israel’s longest-serving prime minister is now defined by strategic failure, subsists in a profound personal and political crisis. His deliberate escalations of regional conflict have served no distinct military purpose; instead, they merely highlight his desperation, turning his rhetorical pledges of “total victory” into a hollow attempt to prevent his coalition from fracturing.
Meanwhile, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich have exploited Netanyahu’s vulnerability to advance their own extremist agendas. Bent on rapid colonial expansion, they have accelerated West Bank annexation, pushed draconian laws to execute Palestinian prisoners and tightened the siege on East Jerusalem.
Under normal circumstances, the sheer scale of the domestic, economic and diplomatic harm engineered by this coalition should have removed it from power. Yet Netanyahu has survived by exploiting deep social fractures and relying on unconditional support from Washington.
This survival shield was further fortified by the initial impotence of a fragmented political opposition and the perpetual wartime atmosphere that Netanyahu cultivated to freeze dissent. Not even his corruption trials derailed his career; he adapted state institutions into instruments of personal survival.
Yet the ultimate irony is that political pressure ultimately came not from the mounting casualties or international isolation but due to the compulsory conscription of the ultra-Orthodox, or Haredim.
For decades, secular Israelis have complained about the sweeping draft exemptions granted to yeshiva students, but the political elite routinely shrugged it off as a secondary culture war that could be managed via backroom political dealings.
However, Israel’s overextended, multifront war of attrition smashed that equilibrium. The issue was violently pushed back to the surface because the military literally ran out of bodies. The true gravity of this crisis was exposed when army Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir broke ranks during a closed-door security Cabinet meeting in March to warn that the Israeli military “is going to collapse in on itself.”
Zamir reportedly raised “10 red flags” before the political leadership, stating bluntly that, after months of intensive combat across Gaza, the northern border and regional theaters, the military was facing an immediate, unsustainable deficit of more than 12,000 combat soldiers.
For more than two years, Netanyahu postponed a legal verdict on the Haredi draft. But mounting military setbacks, particularly on the Lebanese front, made further delays impossible.
The opposition seeks snap elections while Netanyahu engages in legislative theater, using loyalists and parliamentary procedures to slow the process.
Yet this political drama is secondary to the deeper crisis. No political maneuvering can salvage a state facing structural decline. Nothing will heal Israel’s fractures until it confronts the root cause of its crisis: endless, unwinnable military campaigns that have devastated Gaza and the region.
The crisis engulfing Israel is self-inflicted — and there can be no lasting peace until the state’s deep-seated criminality and ongoing genocide and wars against Palestinians and the wider Arab world come to an end.
Courtesy: arabnews
